Evaluating Anime Trends by Sales Figures

With us now around the midpoint of 2010, and with significant sales data available for us to evaluate (thanks to you, Eggplant of Anime Suki) I felt that now might be a good time to once more take a 'big picture' look at the anime industry at a whole, but this time rooted in concrete domestic (i.e. within the Japanese market) sales figures.

This is something that I honestly don't see a lot of amongst online anime discussions, and perhaps with good reason, as the business side of anime is like the business side of many entertainment industries: lots of dry mathematical data, and the crunching of numbers. At first glance, it may seem boring, but yet, it's very relevant, and can help us understand present and future decisions by industry leaders (in the case of anime, companies like Kyoto Animation, SHAFT, Sunrise, Brains Base, AIC, and so on and so forth).

For example, you may wonder why one of your favorite Japanese light novels or visual novels has yet to be fully adapted into anime. Well, knowing that the writer thereof has had one or more of the anime adaptations of his work bomb, and bomb hard, may give you a good, albeit cold and hard, answer here.

Furthermore, you may wonder why certain anime character types, or character designs, are so very prevalent. Well, knowing that all of the big sellers have them could help to explain that as well.

In the business world, what sells is ultimate what gets continued, if there's anything left to continue with, and even then, more may be forced out even if the original author would rather not go along with that. Dragon Ball Z is a classic example of this.

Furthermore, what doesn't sell often doesn't get continued, no matter how passionate a vocal niche fanbase may be about it. Popularity at sheer discussion, hype, and interest levels is almost meaningless if its not accompanied by good, actual, concrete sales.




With that out of the way, I'm going to break this post down into the good, the bad, and the ugly, when it comes to how animes recently released are selling on DVDs and Blu-Rays domestically.

Although, there's two particular recent releases that rise above even the good, and they deserve a category all of their own:

The Outstanding

I must admit that while paying attention to DVD and Blu-Ray sales figures for various animes can help to solve some mysteries, it can pose some other ones.

One such mystery, to me, is "Why aren't there more mecha anime?"

Mecha Anime + High Production Values = Instant. Epic. Win.

Granted, Evangelion's popularity resides in much more than just mecha action, but let's be frank: that is at least part of the appeal. And it is a central source of appeal for Kidou Senshi Gundam UC, otherwise know as Mobile Suit Gundam Unicorn.

And these two are, far and away, the anime sales winners (thus far) of 2010, with both actually topping 100,000 DVD/Blu-Ray sales in total. Although, it should be said that Eva is well ahead of Gundam here, with Eva now starting to close in on a million sales in total for Evangelion 2.22 .

Still, the fact that the only two animes to cross the threshold of one hundred thousand sales totals, for a lone release, for DVDs/Blu-Rays combined, have giant robot action as part of its appeal, is very telling. Especially when you consider the success of Code Geass, Gurren Lagann, and various Gundams. Furthermore, the Nanoha series' unique mixture of maho shojo with mecha also contributes much to its success.

Mecha animes aren't surefire successes, but they do seem to open an anime series up for potentially streaking stratospheric success

One wonders if the answer to much of what ails the modern anime industry can be found by getting back to mecha-oriented roots. Mecha is certainly not the only type of anime that sells well though...

The Good

While merely standing upon mountains, while gazing way, way, waaayyy up at the mecha action between Gundam Unicorn and Eva Unit 01 in the skies above, there's no denying that Angel Beats!, and Durarara!! are selling very nicely. When lacking mecha, it seems that exclamation marks in your anime's name tends to really help. ^_^;

Fairly close behind these two are Working!! and Toaru Kagaku no Railgun.

Of these four, I have yet to see Working!!, but I've seen at least some of the other three, and all of Angel Beats! High production values, and familiar yet eye-catching character designs, seems to be common strands of appeal that run through these four animes. And, to some extent, action elements perhaps help as well.

Durarara!! has similarities with cult classic Bacanno!, but also has the same sophisticated strokes, added to the easel of modern school life, found in Bakemonogatari. I suspect that it is these Bakemonogatari elements that has aided Durarara!! into selling much better than Bacanno! did. Although, perhaps the real secret for the added success can be found in that added exclamation mark. ;)

In all seriousness, we may be seeing a new anime genre emerge; a mildly dark and mature and sophisticated genre; an answer and compliment to many of the more moe-centric animes.

Moe itself continues to sell well, but usually only when couched within animes that are otherwise interesting, or appealing in ways that go beyond moe alone, as is the case with Angel Beats! and likely Working!!

It's a safe bet that Jun Maeda could now demand just about any job on the creative side of the anime industry that he could want. His record, particularly at a sales level, is sterling.

Not everything shares that sterling record though...

The Bad

I've actually watched most of Ichiban Ushiro no Daimaou, and have mostly enjoyed it at a guilty pleasure level. It is, in many ways, a much tighter, plot-driven, and juiced up, version of Kampfer.

However, the sales figures for this anime are middling at best, and probably below average.

And, contrary to popular belief, ecchi (i.e. sexual fanservice-driven) animes tend to have middling at best sales figures.

Chuubra!! proves that not even multiple exclamation marks can save all animes, as its sales figures are awful, with a signal volume having yet to exceed a thousand in sales.

Ikki Tousen Xtreme Xecutor, a sequel to the first anime that many think of when the word "ecchi" crosses their mind, has done substantially better than Chuubra!!, but has had very mediocre success in a broader sense. None of its releases have hit five thousand units sold.

Ladies Versus Butlers has posted similar numbers.

So has Kiss x sis.

Kiddy Girl-And bombed, and bombed hard.


As far as I can tell, the only anime with substantial amounts of sexual fanservice that has done very well is the afforementioned Toaru Kagaku no Railgun.

Fanservice is not the hot-selling commodity that many make it out to be; at least not unless you interpret the term very loosely. Gundam Unicorn's first OVA had none to speak of, and Angel Beats! had none beyond the level that I'd feel comfortable showing to a twelve year old.

At the very least, anime can not rely on fanservice to raise its fortunes. It tends to provide middling at best sales figures.

However, some things sell even worse than that...

The Ugly

Just to be clear, I'm certainly not saying that Nemuru Kushinada is ugly. Quite the contrary, she's rather cute, and her outfit is an exceptional one that feels like its straight out of the Touhou games.

However, the anime that Nemuru Kushinada is featured in has extremely ugly sales figures.

And here is where I go back to how knowing sales data can help answer certain questions.

Let's say a year or two passes, and there's no new anime adaptations of the works of Ryukishi07. Many of his fans may be displeased by this, and wonder why more of his works aren't being adapted. Well, look no further than the sales figures for Umineko, and Ookami Kakushi. Both of these bombed, and bombed hard. I certainly wouldn't be able to fault the anime industry for thinking that its just not worth it, at a basic financial level, to adapt more of Ryukishi07's works. At the end of the day, many may prefer Ryukishi07 to Jun Maeda as a writer, but there's no question as to which is helping the anime industry more.

Another big disappointment is Fairy Tail. Many had hoped that the Shounen world had finally found its answer to what would follow in the footsteps of Bleach, Naruto, and One Piece, but the sales figures for the Fairy Tail anime tell a very different story. It looks like anime is still very much needing an eventual successor to the Shounen Big Three. Shounen, in general, is in a state of decline right now, as Bleach's DVD sales are starting to sink after several years of excellent consistency, and the other two of the Big Three are merely treading water for the most part.

More than perhaps any other anime genre, the shounen one is in dire need of a shot in the arm. It could really use something fresh and new. There can be little doubt that the Big Three are now in a wind-down phase, and successors for them are badly needed.


So, what can we take from all of this?

My analysis is far from completely calculatingly comprehensive, of course, as I have certainly not seen all of the animes that have been put out in 2010, and hence can't comment on all of the movements and trends within the industry. However, I've seen enough, and am familiar with enough, to make some general observations.


One is that mecha still rules, though few attempt it, and many more probably should.

Moe does well, especially when put forward by Jun Maeda and/or Kyoto Animation. It's always nice to spice up your moe with some good action, though. And there appears to be a market for slightly dark, mature, and sophisticated school-based animes.

Ecchi and fanservice are not the surefire sellers that many people seem to think that they are. One does not need to personally dislike fanservice to now argue that there's probably too much of it in the modern anime industry for the anime industry's own good. A sales-based argument can now be made against it, not just a personal taste-based one. I suspect that the fanbase for ecchi and sexual fanservice is largely tapped out, and split between too many titles.

Ryukishi07's impact on the industry is now nil, and fading fast. It should not be a surprise if we do not see many more of his works adapted into anime.

The shounen genre is in real need of a booster shot.


It's not all bad news, certainly, but it points to how the industry continues to change, and perhaps needs to change more than it has. For while Angel Beats! and Durarara!! sold well, they did not sell as well as K-On! (2009) or Bakemonogatari did. Hype alone doesn't seem to generate sales quite as much as it did in years past.

Still, there are a fair number and variety of animes that still turn a decent profit, and there's some room for optimism. With some smart shrewd moves, the anime industry could grow and reassert itself. It's just that it won't get there through quick and easy pandering as much as what was once the case, as we see with how ecchi-driven animes aren't selling all that well, and shounen is arguably starting to decline.

Ultimately, appealing characters, intriguing narratives, and solid production values, are what will be needed to move anime forward. May it magically charm and soar like an Unicorn...